Earlier Comments


QQQ Signals




Earlier Comments:

05/06 Weekend Update
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The QQQQ Stock touched an important trendline at it's high Friday. With Cycle10 also at levels where it would normally make a bearish reversal, a pullback from this trendline is probable, signaled by a break of Friday's low at 35.72. First Fibonacci support (38.2%) is at 35.4. The key 62% Fib. retracement comes in at 35.

This QQQQ Weekly chart shows an Elliott Wave count interpreted by the Advanced Get software. The Elliott Wave Oscillator catched most of the Aug. - Dec. 2004 trend. It came close in doing this again, for the bearish trend which developed thereafter but had two up-tick weeks in March, before resuming it's trend lower.

04/08 Weekend Update
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Cycle10 turned bearish, after the QQQQ tested trendline resistance Friday, which is near the 50% retracement zone. Given the early stages of a downside pressure phase in Cycle10, a test of trendline support (36 area) is likely, next week. This is critical support, if it fails to hold, (closing basis) it could open up for more weakness. Here is an updated QQQQ Weekly Chart

04/01weekend comment
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The QQQQ pulled back from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone Friday, with Cycle10 turning bearish as a result. This stock is now resting on the earlier broken trendline, which now acts as support instead. Key Fib. support (61.8%) is at 35.5, if it fails to hold.

03/24 weekend comment
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After a few days of consolidation at 50% retracement support, the QQQQ gave in to bearish forces late in the week. Friday's Hammer candlestick formed up against trendline resistance, could mean more weakness is coming, near term. This would be signaled by a break of the Hammer low at 36.27. Any break of this week's low (36.07) would indicate a test of key Fibonacci support (61.8%) at 35.5. More on the general market situation in the OEX Daily section.

03/18 weekend comment
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The QQQQ is trading below important trendline support but 50% retracement support is still holding. Cycle10 is bottoming out. A snap-back move towards the broken trendline is possible. This resistance is at 37.1. For a general market analysis comment, see the OEX Daily section.

03/11 weekend comment
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The QQQQ stock closed right above trendline support, Friday. If it gives in to bearish forces next week, a test of the Jan. 05 and even Oct. 04 low is not ruled out.

03/04 weekend comment
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The QQQQ is currently trading in a narrow range, getting closer to the Apex of a large Wedge looking pattern. A breakout from this Wedge is expected before this Apex (where the two trendlines meets) is reached. The directional breakout could set the market tone for weeks.

02/25 weekend comment
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After finding trendline support mid week, the QQQQ stock is now probably going for a test of trendline resistance, which comes in at 38. If clearly overcome, (closing basis) it could open up for more price strength for the tech market. Here is an updated QQQQ Weekly chart. 02/11 weekend comment
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It could be a bearish Channel pattern forming in the QQQQ stock. Friday's close came up against the channel roof, which is near the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance area. If overcome, it would be positive for this Nasdaq 100 index tracking stock. Until then, it's currently in a vulnerable position, where it could instead fall back for support. I.e. the 50% retracement support comes in at 36.5.

Daily Cycle10 is currently in a downside pressure phase. Weekly Cycle10 is in the early stages of an upside pressure phase. So if the QQQQ is able to break out from the channel, a test of the 50% retracement area, (38.6) should be a minimum upside potential, if this occurs. 01/28 weekend comment
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QQQQ prices reached the 50% retracement area, (of the Aug. - Dec. 2004 advance) before reacting to the upside this week. A bearish trendline from the 01/03 high is still intact at this point. Any daily close below the 50% zone, could open up for more weakness towards the key 61.8% Fib. retracement area (35.5).

11/26 weekend comment
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After the QQQ found support on the channel roof early this week, prices have steadily climbed higher, overall. A look at the QQQ Weekly chart, shows a Double Top (from January) in prices, with the BLine indicator at the same time reaching a very toppy reading and a bearish divergence seen in RSI. Any reversal in the BLine and a violation of this week's low at 38.48, would increase the odds of a mid term top in place. For more details on the market outlook, see the OEX Daily section.

11/19 weekend comment
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The QQQ broke out from the Rising Wedge pattern Friday but closed at the channel roof. If this support fails to hold (closing basis) it would open up for more weakness, near term. This bearish breakout came within the 11/19 Gann Angle, +/- 1 day time window, mentioned in the previous weekend comment. If the channel gives in to the bearish forces, Fibonacci support comes in at 37.8

Unlike in the OEX market, the QQQ stock breached the January high intra-week but closed near it's low for the week, thus forming a bearish reversal candlestick which also resulted in a Cycle10 reversal. At the same time, a bearish divergence is seen in the weekly RSI vs. the Double Top in price, which reflects underlying weakness. Often, stronger sell-off's are the outcome when these divergences shows up and once a peak is in place.



11/12 weekend comment
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The QQQ is oscillating higher within a Wedge looking pattern, now testing the upper part of it. Once completed, breakouts from Rising Wedges usually occurs to the downside and these breakouts are often sharp in nature.

Any daily close above it would negate this wedge pattern. Strong resistance is at 39.00 which happens to represent both wedge resistance and the important January high. Support comes in at 38.3.

From a Murrey Math point of view, any clear daily close above the 2/8th MML (red) would mean it wants to trade even higher, into the next square.

For more on the markets and the upcoming Gann Angle convergence, see the OEX Daily section.

11/05 weekend comment
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The QQQ stock is just 1.04 points from it's January high (39.00). This QQQ Weekly chart shows that the Bline indicator is at the same time reaching a topping extreme, Cycle10 is making a double peak and RSI reveal some underlying weakness & divergence, as it will most likely not reach it's January level when/if a test of 39 is coming.

Short term, the QQQ is working on what could be the last stages of a wedge pattern, formed within a larger price channel from August, as seen on the QQQ Daily chart. The Nasdaq TRIN is facing stiff resistance Monday, so a pullback would be a high probability scenario. Any daily close below the lower wedge line, could open up for more weakness near term, before going higher again.

From a Murrey Math point of view, the QQQ closed right below the weak (yellow) 1/8th MML (murrey math line) Friday. Often, when it's not able to overcome these weak resistance lines (closing basis), a pullback or a short term top can be the outcome. The QQQ stock has climbed five 1/8th lines from the 4/8th MML support (blue) in September, thus due for a pullback or short term top. Any daily close above the 2/8th MML, on the other hand, would mean it wants to trade even higher, into the next square.

11/09
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The QQQ has pulled back as suggested in the weekend comment. Today's low came at the lower wedge line. This support must hold (closing basis) to not open up for more weakness, short term. Strong 8/8th MML support comes in at 37.5. Cycle10 turned bearish today.

11/05
Weekend Comment
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The QQQ stock is just 1.04 points from it's January high (39.00). This QQQ Weekly chart shows that the Bline indicator is at the same time reaching a topping extreme, Cycle10 is making a double peak and RSI reveal some underlying weakness & divergence, as it will most likely not reach it's January level when/if a test of 39 is coming.

Short term, the QQQ is working on what could be the last stages of a wedge pattern, formed within a larger price channel from August, as seen on the QQQ Daily chart. The Nasdaq TRIN is facing stiff resistance Monday, so a pullback would be a high probability scenario. Any daily close below the lower wedge line, could open up for more weakness near term, before going higher again.

From a Murrey Math point of view, the QQQ closed right below the weak (yellow) 1/8th MML (murrey math line) Friday. Often, when it's not able to overcome these weak resistance lines (closing basis), a pullback or a short term top can be the outcome. The QQQ stock has climbed five 1/8th lines from the 4/8th MML support (blue) in September, thus due for a pullback or short term top. Any daily close above the 2/8th MML, on the other hand, would mean it wants to trade even higher, into the next square.

09/02
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The below comment posted to the OEX Daily section should be applicable for the QQQ as well:

..."Tuesday's pullback towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level was apparently enough corrective work for the market, as it broke through the 08/27 high today. This could mean Tuesday's low marked the end of wave iv of 1, instead of a wave 2 correction underway."...

A test of the 50% retracement level (35.1) is likely Friday, let's see if the QQQ is able to close above it or not. Any daily close above, would indicate even higher prices ahead, after seeing a pullback from channel resistance first.

08/31
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As also seen in the S&P markets, the QQQ stock broke out from a Rising Wedge pattern Monday, confirming a short term high Friday, near the 50% key Fibonacci retracement zone. The rising wedge is a border case interpretation for the tech market, it is also close to a channel looking pattern.

The breakout resulted in a bearish Cycle10 reversal, which is now in it's early stages of a downside pressure phase. First Fib. support comes in at around 33.8, but as mentioned in the OEX comment, if this is a wave 2 correction underway, a typical target would be either the 50% (33.5) or 61.8% (33.2) retracement area, before the next near term bottom could be in place Any weakness beyond, would start to put pressure on the wave 2 count and will be fully negated with a violation of the 08/13 low, as a wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1 to remain a valid Elliott Wave count.

08/27
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The QQQ stock is climbing higher within a tight wedge looking pattern and is coming close to the 50% retracement level. It has yet to overcome the important 50 EMA (exponential moving average) using daily closing prices.

Any downside breakout (closing basis) from this wedge would indicate a short term top in place. Cycle10 is also at a topping extreme, once it turns down the odds of seeing lower prices would greatly increase. Bearish divergent readings in key indicators like Nasdaq TRIN could mean a sharp sell-off is coming.

QQQ weekly prices broke out from the falling wedge pattern this week, with Cycle10 still in it's early stages of an upside pressure phase. The Intel stock found support on the lower channel line, with a bottomed out Cycle10 just reversed... a good sign for the tech market, mid term, although near term weakness is not ruled out first. If the lower channel line breaks, it could open up for more weakness in this stock.

In retrospect, only using the 5 EMA crossover of the 10 EMA of QQQ Volatility would have catched most (3 points) of the bearish QQQ trend from the June high to the mid August low. These EMA's helps in filtering out minor price noise and more often than not shows the true trend, until the next crossover occurs. The most recent one came a few days after the mid August low, which signaled lower volatility ahead, thus higher prices. Now, over a week later, the QQQ is more than a point higher since then.

For more in depth market analysis, see the OEX Daily section.

Updated Volume chart for the week.

08/25
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After a brief pullback Tuesday, the short term bullish trend from the 08/13 low resumed today and the QQQ was strong enough to close above the first Fibonacci resistance (38.2%). 50% resistance is at 35.12. An overbought Nasdaq TRIN is facing stiff resistance Thursday, so a pullback from the 35 area is a possibility.

The 08/16 Gann Angle cycle convergence had a larger impact than i thought, as a clear short term bullish trend is established after prices left that GA time window.

08/20
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Short term, the QQQ is forming a small Rising Wedge pattern with Friday's high nearly reaching the 38.2% Fib. zone. Once completed, prices usually breaks out to the downside from rising wedges. Cycle10 is topping, so the 38.2% resistance will probably stay intact. From a Murrey Math point of view, the strong 4/8th MML (murrey math line) will be a tough resistance area (34.38) to overcome (daily closing basis).

So the QQQ stock is most likely heading lower early next week and could bring prices back to the 50% - 61.8% retracement area, of the advance from the 08/13 low. Any violation of that low would indicate that the overall bearish trend from 06/30 has yet to be completed.

Mid term, a look at the Nasdaq Weekly chart, shows that the tech market found support on the first Fib. support, of the Oct. 02 - Jan. 04 advance with weekly Cycle10 just entered a new upside cycle pressure phase. This week the Nasdaq closed up against a trendline drawn through the highs from early July. Here is a QQQ Weekly version of the current market situation.

The supportive volume seen throughout the better part of August could help fuel a mid term advance, with wave 1 of a potential five wave impulse structure well underway from the mid August low. A wave 2 could take prices lower into the powerful weekly Gann Angle due 09/03, +/- 1 week. But again, the 08/13 low must hold for this wave scenario to work out correctly. According to Elliott Wave rules, a wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1 to remain a valid count. Wave 2's usually retraces 50% or 61.8% of wave 1 though.

08/18
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The QQQ made a brief pullback inter-day but managed to break out from the wedge pattern thereafter. Nasdaq TRIN has reached an overbought extreme because of this but it might go for the strong 4/8th MML (murrey math line) resistance inter-day Thursday. Let's see how it closes today. If it fails to overcome the 4/8th MML (closing basis) a near term top could be forming up against this MML.

08/17
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The QQQ reached trendline resistance which caused the high for the day. Given the current position of 1&4 day Nasdaq TRIN odds are good this stock will make a pullback from this strong resistance zone. Any daily close above this trendline would be stronger evidence of a short term bottom in place, 08/13. Until then, the QQQ is vulnerable to fall back for support.

08/13
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Nearly an Inside Day in the QQQ, but prices took out Thursday's low by 0.02 points. Cycle10 is bottoming out, both on the daily and QQQ weekly chart. A hammer candlestick (reversal bar) formed on the weekly, at wedge support.

QQQ is also near it's 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, of the Oct. 2002 - Jan. 2004 advance. The odds of a mid term bottom in place would increase with any break of this week's high (33.48) and especially with any clear weekly close above wedge resistance.

Another possibility is that the QQQ will go for a test of the upper wedge line and then resume it's bearish trend which could last to early September before finally forming a mid term bottom. The upcoming weekly 09/03 Gann Angle, +/- 1 week, looks interesting in this regard. If the weakness continues into that GA, it could mark a major market bottom, as an important cycle convergence occurs around that week:

  • 90 trading weeks from the Dec. 2002 top
  • 144 trading weeks since the Dec. 2001 top
  • 180 trading weeks from the April 2001 bottom

    All important GA numbers which isolated have the power to cause market reversals. Now they are found clustering together in early September, a very powerful GA indeed.

    Nasdaq 100 Volume overview for the week.

    08/09
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    The QQQ apparently found support on the lower wedge line, forming a Doji candlestick today. Doji's often mark reversals, especially when they show up near important support/resistance zones. With Cycle10 at the same time well into it's buy zone, odds are good a reaction up from this support will occur, signaled by a break above today's high at 32.96. The trading range was within the previous day's range, thus an Inside Day was seen.

    08/06
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    After a snap-back move up towards the broken 200 EMA the QQQ has been under selling pressure from the 07/30 high and today closed at what could be the lower part of a Wedge pattern. RSI and Nasdaq TRIN is getting quite oversold, in all time frames. Given the large supportive volume spike observed Friday, at least a reaction up from this wedge support is possible.

    In the bigger picture, a larger a-b-c wave 4 correction could be underway from the January high. Time will tell if this will turn into a more complex a-b-c-d-e Triangle pattern. A look at the QQQ Weekly chart shows that the Bline and Cycle10 indicator is bottoming out, so a mid term bottom in the August - early September time frame is probable.

    07/30
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    The QQQ stock has gained ground after the 07/26 Gann Angle cycle convergence clearly had a positive impact on the market this time. Friday's high nearly reached the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone. With Cycle10 at overbought readings, a pull-back from this resistance zone is not ruled out.

    A look at the QQQ Weekly chart, shows that prices found support on the lower part of what could be a Descending Triangle, developing from the January high. With weekly Cycle10 at the same time bottoming out, the mid term outlook seems positive. See the broad comment posted to the OEX Daily section, for more on this.

    07/23
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    Today's close came at or right below trendline support. One more lower close would make the QQQ picture more clear. An up close, on the other hand, could mean the support was still intact.

    A strong bullish divergence in the New High - New Low Index vs. the new low in QQQ prices is noted. This often means a strong rally is around the corner, once this short term bearish trend is finished. As for a likely time target, see the Gann Angle comment posted to the OEX Daily section.

    Updated Volume chart for the week.

    07/16
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    With QQQ prices currently near an important trendline drawn through the significant lows made in March & May, I'd be surprised to not see a test of this trendline first, before possibly heading higher, short term. This strong support comes in at 34.2.

    This area also roughly represents strong Murrey Math support, the 4/8th MML. With prices moved 5/8th down from the 06/30 high at that point, the QQQ would be due for a short term reversal.

    Another scenario is that the QQQ could reach the trendline & 4/8th support area and then consolidate for a few days, before heading higher. As for a probable time target, the upcoming 07/26 Gann Angle, +/- 1 day is a good candidate to mark a positive reversal in the market.

    A look at the bigger picture shows that a wave 4 complex Triangle could be forming in the tech market, from the January high. If this turns out to be correct, then the Bull from Oct. 2002 still has unfinished business to the upside and a test of the January high is not unlikely in the last wave 5.

    When a full five wave structure from Oct. 2002 has reached it's termination point, (possibly this coming Fall) a significant correction is expected thereafter. A 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from Oct. 2002, is not out of the question.

    However, if the current weakness from 07/02 clearly breaks through what is supposed to be the lower part of this Triangle, a wave 5 could already have ended in January and a significant correction is underway. This is a lower ranked scenario though, odds are good we will actually see an advance into the Fall 2004, from a July mid term low.

    07/09
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    Short term, the QQQ touched the 61.8% key retracement support at Thursday's low, with Cycle10 at the same time bottoming out. Thus, a QQQ bottom forming here is a possibility. Since an Inside Day was seen Friday, any break of Thursday's high (36.13) would give more support to this near term bullish stance.

    This stock tested the QQQ Weekly trendline, which is still intact after this trading week. Any weekly close below it, could open up for more weakness, mid term. Given the position of daily Cycle10, it is more likely to see a reaction up from it first. Also, QQQ Volatility has yet to reach it's lower Bollinger Band which supports this near term bullish stance.

    Updated Volume overview.

    07/02
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    The QQQ tested channel support inter-day Friday but closed above it, thus keeping the bullish trend from mid May intact at this point. This strong support was reached with Nasdaq TRIN at the same time found in a very oversold condition. Thus, a reaction up from this support is not ruled out. Here is a Volume chart overview for the whole trading week.

    Any breakout from the channel could mean a top of minimum short term degree was seen on the last day of June. Also, a look at the QQQ Weekly chart shows a bearish Cycle10 reversal, at levels where mid term tops have been made in the past. Another technical point in favor of the mid term Bears, is Intel's weekly close below an important trendline, which could open up for more weakness in the tech market.

    07/01
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    A general market comment is posted to the OEX Daily section.

    06/29
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    The QQQ is consolidating up against the major 8/8th MML (murrey math line). Odds are good a short term top will form here, given the 5/8th move from the 05/17 low, which makes this stock due for a top.

    In addition, the 4 EMA Nasdaq TRIN is now entering it's overbought territory. Cycle10 is at the same time reaching levels where a bearish reversal is probable. A bearish divergence in the RSI vs. the new high in prices is also noted.

    06/23, 2004
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    The QQQ managed to overcome triangle resistance but closed up against a trendline drawn through several highs since April. Nasdaq TRIN is at the same time well into overbought territory. QQQ volatility has reached it's lower Bollinger Band, which portend higher volatility ahead.

    A bearish divergence in RSI vs. price is also noted. From a Murrey Math point of view, odds are good it will reach the major 8/8th MML (37.5) inter-day, before a pullback is likely.

    Period Feb, 2002 - June, 2004
    Period 11/14, 2001 - 02/05, 2002
    Period 09/19 - 11/13, 2001


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